EUR USD October 12 – 16 Bullish in Narrower Trading Range

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Some of important Fundamental news in this week as follows :

ZEW Economic Sentiment
Expected 60.1 raising than last period 59.6. This number is expected to be confirmed on Tuesday October 13 at 05.00 pm GMT+7

Industrial production m / m
Expected 0.9 % raising sharply than last period -0.3 %. This number is expected to be confirmed on Wednesday October 14 at 05.00 pm GMT+7

Core CPI y/y
Expected 1.2 % little weaker than last period at 1.3 %. This number is expected to be confirmed on Thursday October 15 at 05.00 pm GMT+7

ECB President Trichets Speaks
ECB President Trichets will speaks on Thursday October 15 , at 07.25 pm GMT+7

Trade Balance
Expected 7.9 B raising from last period at 6.8 B. This number is expected to be confirmed on Friday October 16 at 05.00 pm GMT+7

Conclusion :

Commonly from those good Fundamental signs , I predict the EUR USD will stay in Bullish momentum.


TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Technically , in Stocastic Oscillator indicator seems the two Stocastic Oscillator lines were crossover already at the top and this indicate the trend will moving down . But there is still possibilities the trend will only stay in floating movement as described in point “ D “ in my chart. That's why to make a propper analysis we have to take a look another indicators as well.

While VOLUME indicator shows the market will getting stronger .

According to Fundamental optimism , the raising up of the market are conformed as Bullish mode but in smaller Trading Range. However the pairs rising will not be too sharp as last period. This situation indicate from Bollinger Band is getting narrow and the pairs are stay intact above Bollinger Middle Band.

Mean while level 1.4478 which was a Strong Resistance level for several times , is changed become a Strong Support level in this period . This situation also conformed the Bullish momentum of EUR USD.

In making the chart , considering the significantly trend movement comparing last period , I place Fibonacci 0.0 at level 1.4478 , because in this level the strong reversal point was happened as pointed “ B “ in my chart.

And for Fibonacci 100 , I still place it at 1.4843 , as my last week chart , considering this level is not broken yet . So I assume this level is still significant as Fibonacci 100.

You must be aware around 1.4659. If the pairs are moving down , it suppose to hold around 1.4617 Fibonacci 38.2 ( pointed “ C “ in my chart ). Because in this level in October 2nd , there are two Moving Average lines were crossover with Bolinger Middle Line . And thats why I place this level as Support 1.

Hold your position or becarefull if the falling movement is appear as last Friday happened. Wait until the pairs raising up again , and you can entry in Long mode. If the pairs hit the Resistance 1 at 1.4791 , it will lead the pairs to keep moving up toward Resistance 2 at 1.4843. I describe the trend movement prediction as blue line in my chart

Keep in mind to be carefull in your position toward due of Jean Claude Trichet speech . An unexpected market movement may happen cause by panic respon from any rumors.


Trading range : 1.4659 – 1.4843 between Fibo 50 – Fibo 100
Support 1 : 1.4617 Fibo 38.2
Support 2 : 1.4478
Resistance 1 : 1.4791
Resistance 2 : 1.4843 Fibo 100 as last week
Target : 1.4755
Stop Loss : 1.4478 Fibo 00
Trend : Potensial UP

Happy Trading,

Himawan Wardhana

EUR USD OCTOBER 5 -9 SLOWER in BULLISH MOMENTUM

As my prediction in my last article : “ EUR USD September 21 – 25 Techincally Bullish Supported by Strong Fundamental“ , the EUR USD is really fell and breaking 1.4589 as I wrote.

In this week , I predict the EUR USD will continuing it bullish momentum but in slower movement. Here's my analysis :

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Some of important Fundamental news in this week as follows :

Retail Sales
Rise at – 0.2 % better than expectation at – 0.4 %. This number is conformed already at Sunday October 5.

Final GDP q/q
The economy shrank by only - 0.1% in the second quarter , and that is not too bad in Europe. By this period the number will expected unchanged at - 0.1 %. This number is expected to be confirmed on Wednesday October 7 at 9:00 GMT

German Industrial Production m/m
A rise of 1.6% is expected to follow last month’s 0.9% decline. This number is expected to be confirmed on Thursday October 8

ECB Press Conference
Considering that Europe economic is slowly recovering , ECB will probably keep the Bid Rate unchanged, at 1%. This major event is due on Thursday October 8 at 11:45 GMT.

French Industrial Production
Europe’s second largest economy, France, also showed slow and steady recovery. Industrial production is expected to rising by 0.4% after a 0.1% rise last month. This number is expected to be confirmed on Friday October 9 at 6:00 GMT.

Jean Claude Trichet Speech
As well as ECB Press Conference, as the head of ECB , Trichet's speech will influence the market movement . This event is due on Friday at 8:30 GMT.


Commonly from those good Fundamental signs , I predict the EUR USD will stay in Bullish momentum.



TECHNICAL ANALYSIS


Techincally , the Stocastic Oscillator indicator shows the trend will moving up , considering the two Oscillator's lines are crossover in bottom level already.

Meanwhile VOLUME indicator shows falling movement it may appear. But considering the Fundamental optimism , a raising movement it may conformed. Even so , the raising movement will be slowly considering the market movement in this period is still resist by falling Upper Trend Line ( blue trend line in my chart )

As my last week chart , I put Fibonacci 0.0 at 1.4309 where two Moving Average lines are crossover already. And Fibonacci 100 at 1.4843 , lower than last period.

I predict the market will fluctuation around Fibonacci 61.8 at 1.4645 but it will stay intact in Bullish Momentum .

Keep in mind to be carefull in your position toward due of ECB Press Conference and Jean Claude Trichet speech . An unexpected market movement may happen cause by panic respon from any rumors.

Trading range : 1.4432 – 1.4709
Support : 1.4432 Fibo 23.6
Resistance : 1.4709 ( two MA lines are crossover )
Target : 1.4645 around Fibo 61.8
Stop Loss : 1.4400
Closing level this week : 1.4522
Trend : Potensial UP

Happy Trading



Himawan Wardhana

EUR USD September 21 - 25 Technically Bullish Supported by Strong Fundamental

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS :

EUR USD is closed at 1.4702 in September 18 , while at September 11 closed at 1.4579. Fundamentaly this EUR USD reinforcement are caused by positives of some economic indicator from some large country such Germany and France.

In example , Germany Product Price Index ( PPI ) is raise 0.5 % higher than it forecast 0.1 % , indicate there is a strength to break away from any longer deflation.

Some high impact Fundamental Indicators for EUR as follows :

period September 7 – 11 :

German Factory Orders : forecast : 2.0 % fact : 3.5 %
German Trade Balance : forecast : 11.2 fact : 12.4
German Industrial Production : forecast : 1.6 % fact : - 9.9 %
German Final CPI : forecast : 0.2 % fact : 0.2 %
French Industrial Production : forecast : 0.6 % fact : 0.1 %

period September 14 – 18 :

Industrial Production m/m : forecast : - 0,3 % fact : -0.3 %
German ZWE Economic Sentiment : forecast : 59.8 fact : 57.7
EUR ZWE Economic Sentiment : forecast : 57.8 fact : 59.6
CPI y / y : forecast : -0.2 % fact : -0.2 %
Trade Balance : forecast : 1.2 B fact : 6.8 B
German PPI m / m : forecast : 0.1 % fact : 0.5 %
EUR Current Account : forecast : - 4.3 B fact : 6.6 B


During this September 21 – 25 period , some high impact Fundamental Indicator are :

French Flush Manufacturing PMI
Forecast 51.4 raise than last month 50.8 . The actual fact will publish at Wednesday September 23.

German Flush Manufacturing PMI
Forecast 51.0 raise than last month 49.2. The actual fact will publish at Wednesday September 23.

Flash Manufacturing PMI
Forecast 49.8 raise than last month 48.2. The actual fact will publish at Wednesday September 23.

Flash Services PMI
Forecast 50.0 raise than last month 49.9. The actual fact will publish at Wednesday September 23.

M3 Money Supply y / y
Forecast 2.7 % decline than last month 3.0 % . The actual fact will publlish at Friday September 25

Private Loans y / y
Forecast 0.3 % decline than last month 0.6 % . The actual fact will publlish at Friday September 25

Commonly considering those positive forecasts , we can conclude the optimism of Euro economic recovery will still infulence the trend of EUR USD in this week

Keep in mind in this week the G-20 conference will be held at September 24-25 . It is strong possibility that Volume transaction will decline during this conference because a lot of traders will be await of the conference result.


TECHNICAL ANALYSIS :

To make a proper Trend Line , I put Fibonacci 0.0 at 1.4309 where two moving average are crossover already. Then Fibonacci 100 at 1.5045 in a par of closing level at past 2008 August 8.

Considering the Curent Trend Line , I can assume this week target will be at level 1.4835. The breaking of 1.4835 will lead pairs toward next target which it will be 1.5045 , as the tilt angle of Curent Trend Line and also considering this level is Closing level at 2008 August 8 . To conform this bullish scenario , then the pairs must be stay between Bollinger Middle Band and Bollinger Upper Band.

But if we see in the Stocastic Oscilator , pairs will decline to level 1.4589 Fibonacci 38.2 then it willl raise again to level 1.4766 Fibonacci 61.8 . This movement prediction described as blue dot line in my chart.

Keep beware to emerge of Triangle Formation possibility . If it happen I assume it will be stay around Fibonacci 23.6 level 1.4400 near Bollinger Middle Band , and I put this level as Stop Loss level because however it is stil possible the pairs will decline lower than this level.


Trading range : 1.4589 – 1.4835
Support : 1.4589 , 1.4520
Resistance : 1.4766 , 1.4835
Target : 1.4835 - 1.5045
Stop Loss : 1.4400
Trend : Potensial UP

Happy Trading


Himawan Wardhana

EUR USD September 14 – 18 Fundamental & Technical Analysis

EUR USD closed in 1.4579 in last week period. The US Dollar weakness and positives EUR USD economic indicators are influence the strength of EUR USD. Some of those positives indicators as follows :

German Factory Orders : forecast : 2.0 % fact : 3.5 %
German Trade Balance : forecast : 11.2 fact : 12.4
German Final CPI : forecast : 0.2 % fact : 0.2 %

This also conforming in making FOREX Forecast , there is a connection or correlation between Fundamental and Technical Analysis.


FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS :

Entering this week , some High Impact Fundamental for EUR USD as follows :

Industrial Production m/m :
From -0.6% forecast moving up to – 0.3 % The actual number will be publish at September 14

German ZWE Economic Sentiment
From 56.1 forecast moving up to 59.8 The actual number will be publish at September 15.

EUR ZWE Economic Sentiment :
From 54.8 forecast moving up to 57.8 The actual number will be publish at September 15.

CPI y / y
From -0.2 % forecast still certain at – 0.2 % The actual number will be publish at September 16.

German PPI m / m
From – 1.5 % forecast moving up to 0.1 % The actual number will be publish at September 18.


EUR CURRENT ACCOUNT
From – 5.3 B forecast moving up to – 4.3 B The actual number will be publish at September 18

Generally from those Fundamental Forecasts , we can conclude market analysts do have optimism regarding Euro zone economic growth.


TECHNICAL ANALYSIS :

Considering analysts optimism as Fundamental analysis above , in Technical Analysis this week I believe EUR USD will be trade in range 1.4347 – 1.4692 in target toward 1.4692 Fibonacci 161.8

As your consideration to knows if EUR USD still stay in bullish mode , then the pairs must traded stay intact above Bollinger Middle Band. If the pairs moving down below Bollinger Middle Band , then you must aware for the next movement.

One important thing must consider is , after continously moving up gradually EUR USD usually will have its turning point to pull back retracement and make a triangle formation. I consider this third triangle point will be around 1.4347 or even lower around 1.4289 Fibonacci 61.8 ( point “A” in my chart ). To confirm my consideration we could see in these levels , the two Moving Average are crossover for several times during past period. If you stay in Long mode , then I suggest you to put 1.4289 as Stop Loss.


Trading Range : 1.4347 – 1.4692
Support : 1.4347 , 1.4289
Stop Loss : 1.4289
Resistance : 1.4692 , 1.4725
Trend : Bullish potential Up
Target : 1.4692

Happy Trading,

Himawan Wardhana

EUR USD Weekly Target to 1.4340

As I wrote in my last article , EUR will have its test key level around 1.4383 ( labelled with point A in my last chart , described by crossover between Upper Trend Line with Below Trend Line) .

And we can see last week EUR failled to break this test key level. A faillure to break 1.4383 will lead pairs to downside correction and bring pairs to sideways mode.

Next Movement :

In this week , EUR USD seems will have a smaller Trading Range than last week , and target to 1.4340 by the end of this week. Indicate by crossover between Trend Upper Line and Trend Below Line.

The pairs will be stay in sideways mode but it still intact above my Trend Below Line ( in red color ) as describe in my chart. The pairs will also trade above Bollinger Middle Line and this conformed my assumption.

Suggestion :

You can entry market in Long mode , only if pairs still stay above Fibonacci 61.8 level 1.4288. Then always becarefull when pairs below 1.4288 or stay around 1.4270 consider it might be downside Turning Point as well.

Trading Range : 1.4240 – 1.4380
Support : 1.4240
Stop Loss : 1.4200
Resistance : 1.4380
Trend : Sideways
Target : 1.4340


Happy Trading !! September 6 , 2009


Himawan Wardhana

EUR USD this week Key point 1.4383

EUR USD has been trade in moving up trend in 3rd week in August 17 – 21 OPEN 1.4146 and CLOSE 1.4330 and Volume is in decline mode.

Then price traded in moving down trend in 4th week in August 24 – 28 , OPEN 1.4343 and CLOSE 1.4301 and Volume is in decline mode .

Considering these data and comparing it with Technical Analysis tools , I believe in the first week of May , the EUR USD will be trade in moving up trend with target toward 1.4442

EUR USD will have it test key level around 1.4383 labelled with point A in my chart described by crossover between Upper Trend Line with Below Trend Line.

A faillure to break 1.4383 will lead pairs to downside correction and pull back toward Fibonacci 61.8 around level 1.4288 and bring pairs to sideways mode.

But, breaking 1.4383 will be a trigger to reach further upside gains are expected towards 1.4442 .

To reach this 1.4442 level , the pair need to hold position above 1.4288 between Bolinger Middle Line and 1.4442 Bolinger Upper Line . It means stay intact above Fibonacci 50.0 retracement. It will conform a bullish momentum toward 1.4442 and also putting the pair on the path to further upside gains towards the 1.45..... . This next movement also indicate by Bollinger Middle Band is in moving up position

Suggestion :

You can entry market in Long mode , only if pairs still stay above 1.4288. Then always becarefull when pairs entering 1.4383 as Key Point consider it might be downside Turning Point as well.


Trading Range : 1.4244 – 1.4383 then 1.4288 – 1.4442
Support : 1.4205 , 1.4288
Stop Loss : 1.4205
Resistance : 1.4383 , 1.4442
Trend : Sideways with Potential Up
Target : 1.4383 then 1.4442


Happy Trading !! August 31, 2009

HIMAWAN WARDHANA

GBP USD Important Levels This Week

GBP USD stay in my 2nd scenario as my last forecast. Usually after a breakout from a long period of range , market would produce significant bullish momentum. Although level 1.6582 already breake , the uptrend is still intact in a triangle configuration and potential downside pullback is still suggested.

And we can see pairs are fail to hold position above Fibonacci 61.8 level 1.6800 and lead us to a downside corection , and pullback beyond Fibonacci 50.0 level 1.6689 towards Fibonacci 38.2 level 1.6582 zone .

As common terms in double top formation , pairs will find the below turning point first to start its rebound and begin moving up to the next top level. This view is clearly supported  by its weekly chart which are bullish and pointing higher suggesting more strength

Next Movement :

As common triangle formation , the pairs will need to find the third feed as below strong turning point for a rebound uptrend position. I believe the turning point will stay in around Fibonacci 38.2 level 1.6582. It also considered this level 1.6582 already became Strong Resistance for more than 3 weeks before 2009 July 31.

After rebound the pairs will go to Fibonacci 61.8 level 1.6800 for a test key level until then there will be 2 scenarios :

Scenario 1 :

A failure to hold position above Fibonacci 61.8 level 1.6800 will lead us to a downside corection , and pullback towards below Fibonacci 50.0 level 1.6689 . However I believe the pairs will still stay intact above the trend below line ( red straight line in my chart ) and then moving up again to continuing it bullish mode. Of course it will need several days to do this zig-zag mode until beyond Fibonacci 61.8 level 1.6800 towards level 1.6934.

Scenario 2 :

If the pair can hold position above 1.6800 Fibonacci 61.8 , it will put the pair on the path to further upside gains towards the 1.7000 level . This next movement also indicate by Bollinger Middle Band is in moving up position.


Epilogue :

Either scenario 1 or 2 , however the breaking of level 1.6582 will be a trigger to reach further upside gains are expected towards 1.7332. As I wrote in my previous forecast , this 1.7332 level will be GBPUSD next target . This view is clearly supported  by its weekly chart which are bullish and pointing higher suggesting more strength

To reach this 1.7332 level , the pair need to hold position above 1.7040 . It will conform a significant bullish momentum toward 1.7332 and also put the pair on the path to further upside gains towards the 1.7000 level as psycho level to reach the next target 1.7322 level. This next movement also indicate by Bollinger Middle Band is in moving up position.


Suggestion :

if you in Long mode , don't entry below 1.6800 Fibonacci 61.8 . Because below 1.6800 the pull back mode possibility is still strong. You better in patient and wait until the turning point is strong enough to push the pairs beyond Fibonacc1 61.8 level 1.6800 towards 1.7000


Trading Range : 1.6582 – 1.6934
Support : 1.6582
Resistance : 1.6934 1.7040
Trend : Rebound and Potential Up by the end of this week
Entry Point : above 1.6800
Target : 1.6934 to 1.7040


Happy Trading !! August 10, 2009

HIMAWAN WARDHANA